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Will the Scottish team at last end the New Zealand curse?
Autumn Nations Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks
Where: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, the Scottish capital Date: Saturday, 8 November Time: 15:10 GMT
Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.
After defeating three home nations, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.
The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."
Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.
Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest.
Modern Encounters
Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent.
During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.
Squad Updates
Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.
Via their excellence, their power, game management, they secure victory.
As match day approaches where positive expectations that supporters maintained for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.
Missing Players
Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.
The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.
During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.
Squad Depth
Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of limited game time.
And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.
Coaching Choices
Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.
The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.
Historical Context
Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.
That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.
By the Numbers
Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests recently, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and fewer after halftime.
Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.
What Scotland Needs
Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.
The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - maintaining intensity.
In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.
Final Analysis
Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.
But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.
Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.
Brian Hernandez
A passionate writer and shopping enthusiast with a keen eye for quality products and lifestyle trends.
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