Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
